City Notes...

Questioning population data

Last week, the Dayton Daily News published a story on recently released population data estimates. The estimates indicate that Oakwood has lost 604 residents since 2000. Local data refutes these figures. In fact, local data suggests the opposite. The graph below shows Oakwood’s census counts and annual estimated population back to 1990.

These annual census counts and population estimates are derived by the US Census Bureau. The most accurate figures are the counts collected for 1990 and 2000 as they were gathered through the detailed and highly scientific decennial census. The figures from 1991 to 1999 and 2001 to 2006 are estimates based on a much simpler estimating process. Of significant note on the graph is the consistent drop in estimated population from 1991 through 1999 and the enormous increase in population in 2000. I suggest to you that this is grossly inaccurate.

Oakwood is a very stable community and has been this way for many decades. Nothing significant happened in Oakwood in the one-year period from 1999-2000 that would support the absurd notion that our population increased by over 10% that year. Likewise, no significant events occurred between 1991 and 1999 that would have caused Oakwood’s population to decline by 643 during that period. Actual data on Oakwood school enrollment suggests just the opposite.

Our school population rose consistently through the 1990’s and has continued to rise thus far this decade. The increase over the past six years is nearly 10%. Although there are more homes on the market now than in recent years (145 at the end of June as compared to 122 at the end of June in 2006 and 91 in 2005) our property values continue to rise well above the area average and we most certainly do not have a vacant housing problem. The Dayton Area Board of Realtors reports that the total number of homes sold in Oakwood over the past four years is as follows:

The steady increase in home value indicates that Oakwood continues to be a desirable location for current and new residents alike. Dayton Area Board of Realtors’ data show that the average sale price for homes in Oakwood increased by 31.7 percent from 2000 to 2006. The increase throughout the entire Dayton area during that period was 11.1 percent.

In reviewing population estimates, one must be careful to recognize that the only accurate population numbers are those derived from the decennial census. Population estimates for intervening years are calculated from formulas that do not apply well to cities like Oakwood, cities that are well-established, almost fully developed, and that are not suffering from blight or population migration. Oakwood remains a wonderful city with an excellent school system and unique public services. Homes here are well maintained and, as a whole, continue to increase in value.

Submitted by:
Norbert S. Klopsch,
Oakwood City Manager

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